A RED WAVE? Polls Show Momentum for Carney’s Liberals

(Image courtesy of CBC)

After becoming leader of the Liberals last week and Prime Minister on Friday, Mark Carney seems to be taking over an enviable position in the polls.

Liberals See Near Miraculous Comeback

After taking a composite of polls released from Abacus, Mainstreet Research, Leger, Innovative Research, EKOS, Liaison Strategies, and Angus Reid in the last week, the average of all the polls taken show the Liberals with a vote share of 39 percent. The Conservatives meanwhile would take 36 percent, the NDP in third place with 12 percent, and the Bloc Québécois would capture 6 percent.

If these numbers were the result on election day, the Liberals would have a good chance at gaining seats and even forming a majority government, giving the party a fourth consecutive mandate. The main reason for this surge in support for the Liberals has been the collapse of the NDP led by Jagmeet Singh, who had 21 percent of the vote in a December Angus Reid poll only to now be reduced to 9 percent. The Conservatives have also lost 8 percent from their high of 45 percent in December.

Carney has also benefited from high favourables with a net approval rating of 15 percent. Poilievre and Singh meanwhile are underwater with a net negative of 21 percent and 25 percent respectively, according to a March Angus Reid poll.

However, Caveats Slow Down Liberal Optimism

That being said, the Liberals do have some significant warning signs. Of people who say they support the Liberals, only 49 percent say they are absolutely committed to the party and will vote for them in the next election. This is compared to the Conservatives where 66 percent of supporters say they will definitely support the party come election time. Also, cost of living, housing, and the economy are still pressing issues for voters, which could be a drag on the incumbent Liberals.

Carney Seeks to Turn Against History

All in all, while the Liberals are riding high at the moment before an anticipated election, so were John Turner in 1984 and Kim Campbell in 1993, who both entered office after the retirement of an unpopular incumbent only to lose massively in an election a few months into their tenure. Carney and the Liberals have to ask whether this time is different or if history will repeat itself once again.