BC Awaits Final Election Results as Recounts, Absentee Ballots Could Sway Outcome
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British Columbians will wait until the end of October, or even early November, before knowing the final outcome of the 2024 provincial election, as recounts and outstanding ballots leave the province in a state of uncertainty.
With no party securing a clear majority after Saturday's election, BC NDP leader David Eby remains premier. Preliminary results from Elections BC show the NDP holding 46 seats, just one short of a majority. The Conservative Party of BC secured 45 seats, and the BC Greens took two. The minimum number for a majority in BC’s legislature is 47.
Recounts in two key ridings, Surrey-Centre and Juan de Fuca-Malahat, are set to play a crucial role in determining the final result. In Surrey-Centre, the NDP’s Amna Shah leads Conservative candidate Zeeshan Wahla by just 96 votes. In Juan de Fuca-Malahat, NDP’s Dana Lajeunesse is ahead of Conservative Marina Sapozhnikov by an even narrower 23 votes.
Final Count and Judicial Recounts
Elections BC will begin its final count, including absentee and vote-by-mail ballots, from October 26 to 28. Approximately 49,000 ballots are expected to be included in this process. These ballots, which require additional verification checks, could potentially change the outcome in several ridings.
Under the Election Act, judicial recounts are mandatory if the margin between the top two candidates is less than 1/500th of the total ballots counted. For this election, recounts are already confirmed for the tight races in Surrey-Centre and Juan de Fuca-Malahat. Candidates may also request recounts for other districts by October 22.
Final results will only be confirmed once all ballots have been counted and any recounts have been completed. Judicial recounts, if necessary, could extend the process into November. Candidates have until November 4 to request judicial recounts, which must be made within six days of the final count's conclusion on October 28.
Eby will remain as premier while the process continues. The next steps depend on the election of a Speaker and a confidence vote in the legislature, which will only occur once all results are finalized and Eby recalls the legislature. While Eby’s NDP won the most seats and votes, the lack of a majority leaves room for the Conservatives, under leader John Rustad, to potentially challenge the NDP’s hold on power.
The election of a Speaker is crucial because no legislative business, including the confidence vote, can proceed without one. A confidence vote is a formal test to see if the government has the support of a majority of the elected MLAs. If Eby’s government loses the vote, it signals that they no longer have the confidence of the legislature to govern. In that case, the Lieutenant Governor could invite Rustad to form a government if he can demonstrate that he has the support of a majority of MLAs. If no party can secure majority support, the Lieutenant Governor may choose to dissolve the legislature, triggering a new election.
With the NDP falling short of a majority, their ability to survive the confidence vote depends on securing backing from the BC Greens. If they fail to do so, the province could see Rustad’s Conservatives form the next government, though this would be challenging.
Record Voter Turnout
Voter turnout reached 57.41 percent, according to Elections BC, a slight increase from the 53.86 percent turnout in the 2020 election. This election saw a record number of ballots cast, with over 2 million voters participating. The previous record was set in 2017, with just under 2 million votes.
While the initial count was completed on October 20, it will be at least another week before the final count is tallied and the dust settles on one of British Columbia’s closest and most unpredictable elections in years.