British Columbia’s political future remains uncertain after a tightly contested election left no party with a clear majority. With the BC NDP and BC Conservatives nearly tied in seat counts, the BC Greens, holding just two seats, find themselves in a critical position to decide who forms the next government. As final vote counts and recounts loom, both the NDP and Conservatives are preparing strategies, recognizing that the Greens’ support—or lack thereof—could be decisive in determining which party secures control.

The election results so far show the BC NDP with 46 seats and the BC Conservatives with 45, while 47 are needed to form a majority in the legislature. A final tally of 49,000 absentee and mail-in ballots, combined with automatic recounts in two ridings, is scheduled to take place from October 26 to 28.

Greens’ Role as Kingmakers

BC Green Party Leader Sonia Furstenau, who lost her seat in Victoria-Beacon Hill but continues to lead the party, has indicated that her party’s platform will be the basis for any support. Newly elected MLAs Jeremy Valeriote and Rob Botterell have expressed a commitment to upholding the Greens’ priorities.

Both newly elected MLAs have an opportunity to bring fresh perspectives to the legislature and truly shake up the immediate future of BC politics. However, there is a general consensus that they will follow party leader Furstenau’s direction in supporting the BC NDP, thereby maintaining the status quo. Valeriote’s win in West Vancouver–Sea to Sky marked a breakthrough for the Greens, as it is their first victory in a traditionally centre-right riding outside of their Vancouver Island base. Meanwhile, Botterell now represents Saanich North and the Islands, a seat previously held by former Green MLA Adam Olsen.

“We’re going to carry on and work together to tackle the issues,” Botterell said in an interview with CBC’s The Early Edition. He emphasized the importance of focusing on collaboration and maintaining the Greens’ distinct identity amid the uncertainty.

The Greens have maintained an appearance of keeping their options open, engaging in preliminary discussions with BC NDP Leader David Eby while avoiding any formal commitments. Furstenau disclosed that she had taken a call from Eby but did not respond to one from Conservative Leader John Rustad, explaining that she did not recognize the number. The Green leader voiced concerns about the rhetoric and conduct of certain Conservative candidates, describing their statements as troubling and inconsistent with the standards expected of elected officials.

“There have been statements made by Conservative candidates that are truly disturbing, racist, dehumanizing, homophobic, and conspiratorial,” Furstenau said Wednesday.

NDP and Conservative Tensions

For the BC NDP, the narrow election results signal potential vulnerabilities. Eby acknowledged the dissatisfaction expressed by voters, particularly around key issues such as affordability, public safety, and healthcare.

“We need to do better,” Eby said at a press conference on Tuesday, pledging to address these priorities in the coming months.

Despite holding a narrow lead, the NDP faced a challenging election night, losing several key seats, indicating voter dissatisfaction with the party since Eby took over from John Horgan in 2022.

Meanwhile, the BC Conservatives, led by John Rustad, made substantial gains by tapping into voter frustrations with the status quo. Rustad’s campaign focused on opposing key NDP policies, such as drug decriminalization and the carbon tax, while addressing issues like healthcare, or lack thereof.

The Conservatives secured 45 seats and won 43.57 percent of the popular vote.

Political analysts, including Royal Roads University’s David Black, view the Conservative surge as a reflection of broader discontent. Black told the Times Colonist that there is “a hunger for change and fixing what in some ways is a kind of broken system and a lack of trust that the government is in a position to fix it.”

The Recount and Final Count

The next critical step is the completion of the final vote count from October 26 to 28, which includes around 49,000 absentee and mail-in ballots. In addition, manual recounts are scheduled in two key ridings—Juan de Fuca-Malahat and Surrey City Centre—where the BC NDP leads the Conservatives by fewer than 100 votes.

If these results remain unchanged, the BC NDP would fall short of the majority, making collaboration with the Greens crucial. However, if the Conservatives manage to flip even one seat, they could find themselves in a position to attempt forming a government, albeit with challenges related to appointing a Speaker.

Peter Milobar, the Conservative MLA-elect for Kamloops Centre and a former BC United MLA, highlighted the need to let the process play out before making any assumptions.

“Conversations are dramatically different if it is the current seat count, versus we flip one, or we flip two, or if we flip three,” Milobar said, urging patience until the final results are clear.

coLLABORATION

While collaboration with the NDP is on the table, the Greens are aware of past tensions. The collapse of their 2017 confidence-and-supply agreement, after the NDP called a snap election in 2020, left a mark on their relationship. Despite this, the Greens have signalled a willingness to engage.

Former Green leader Andrew Weaver, who negotiated the 2017 agreement, believes the current situation is more complicated. Weaver, who no longer belongs to the BC Greens, endorsed a BC Conservative candidate in this election. He noted that the loss of Furstenau’s seat in the legislature presents a unique challenge, as parties typically rely on having their leader in the chamber.

“They need to resolve that issue sooner rather than later,” Weaver said, suggesting the possibility of a by-election.

Pathways for the Greens

If the final count leaves the BC Greens in a position to hold the balance of power, they have options. A renewed confidence-and-supply agreement with the BC NDP could be on the table, but the terms would likely be stricter and more conditional than in 2017. Political analysts have noted that any future alliance between the Greens and NDP would likely be colder and more transactional.

Proportional representation (PR) could be an option for the BC Greens in any negotiations with the NDP, however this is considered to be unlikely. PR allocates seats based on each party’s share of the vote, unlike the current first-past-the-post system. The Greens have long advocated for PR, arguing it would more fairly represent voters’ preferences. Despite a failed 2018 referendum, the issue remains a priority. However, the NDP would most likely resist, as PR could complicate their path to future majorities. Securing this reform would be a notable win for the Greens.

Andrew Reeve, deputy director of communications for the BC United caucus, stressed the importance of maintaining leverage, according to Black Press Media.

“If I was advising them today, I’d say ‘PR or Bust,’” Reeve said, adding that the Greens should avoid repeating their 2017 mistake of giving up too much political capital.

If the Greens decide not to pursue a formal agreement, they could opt for an issue-by-issue approach, leveraging their influence on key votes without binding themselves to a long-term arrangement. This strategy could allow the Greens to maintain their independence while still playing a role in shaping policy.

Greens’ Next Steps

As the province awaits the final vote count, the BC Greens face critical decisions that could shape their future and the broader direction of BC politics. For Furstenau, the coming weeks will be key to reaffirming her leadership and establishing the Greens as a distinct political force. Despite her electoral loss, Furstenau remains focused on guiding her party through this “transitional period,” hinting that her leadership role may be temporary.

With neither the BC NDP nor the BC Conservatives securing a clear majority, the Greens’ leverage in upcoming negotiations could be pivotal. As both parties vie for stability, the balance of power could rest in the hands of the Greens.

More to come....