Record Early Voting in BC, But Election Day Storm Could Dampen Turnout
(Image courtesy CBC)
British Columbia is poised for one of its closest provincial elections in years heading into Saturday’s vote. This high-stakes election comes amid record-breaking advance voting and a severe weather warning that could impact the final turnout.
According to the latest Leger poll, the BC NDP holds a slight edge with 46 per cent of support among decided voters, compared to the Conservatives’ 42 percent, however, this lead is within the poll’s margin of error. Sonia Furstenau and the BC Green Party remain steady at nine percent support.
With the collapse of BC United in August, this election has become a contest between Premier David Eby’s NDP and John Rustad’s Conservatives. Political analysts suggest the emergence of the Conservative Party as a significant force marks a major realignment on the centre-right of BC politics. This shift comes amid growing discontent with the NDP’s handling of issues like housing affordability, public safety, and the ongoing drug crisis.
Adding to the uncertainty, a forecasted “atmospheric river” is expected to bring heavy rainfall to much of the province, including Metro Vancouver and Vancouver Island. Environment Canada has issued a weather alert warning of up to 70 millimeters of rain in urban areas, while mountainous regions could receive over 200 millimeters. Elections BC has prepared contingency plans to ensure polling stations remain operational, despite the potential challenges posed by power outages or flooding. Over a million people have already cast their ballots during advance voting, representing more than 28 percent of registered voters.
In total, 93 seats are up for grabs in the provincial legislature, with 47 required for a majority government. This includes six new ridings added to support growing population centres in southern BC. If neither major party secures a majority, the election’s outcome could hinge on a record number of independent candidates, many of whom are former BC United.
Key issues
Both the NDP and Conservatives have focused heavily on affordability and cost-of-living issues, which remain top priorities for voters. Eby’s platform pledges to build 300,000 new homes over the next decade, partly through increased density regulations and a rise in the Speculation and Vacancy Tax. His "Action Plan for You" also promises a $1,000 annual tax cut for middle-income families and expanded child care and mental health services. The NDP government’s approach includes expanding housing on Crown land and additional funding for co-op and non-profit housing.
Meanwhile, Rustad’s Conservatives have promised sweeping tax cuts and the introduction of what they call the “Rustad Rebate,” which aims to provide income tax relief for renters and homeowners by allowing exemptions on mortgage or rent payments. The Conservative platform also proposes to reduce regulatory barriers and streamline municipal housing approvals to increase construction. Rustad has been critical of the NDP’s affordability measures, arguing they are insufficient to address skyrocketing housing prices in the province.
Healthcare is another key issue. The BC NDP has touted its plan to increase healthcare funding, streamline the credentialing process for foreign-trained professionals, and expand mental health resources in schools. Eby has framed these initiatives as essential for long-term stability and public well-being, despite the province’s growing $8.9 billion deficit for the 2025-26 fiscal year.
In contrast, Rustad’s Conservatives are advocating for activity-based funding in hospitals and partnerships with private clinics to reduce surgical wait times. The Conservative platform also includes a “Patients First” approach that would allow residents to seek care at out-of-province facilities if wait times exceed medically recommended limits. Critics, however, warn that these policies could risk creating a two-tiered healthcare system and divert resources from public hospitals.
Public Safety and Political Realignments
Public safety and the province’s drug decriminalization policies have been contentious issues throughout the campaign. Rustad has taken a hardline stance against decriminalization, pledging to reverse these measures and introduce new legislation for involuntary care for those with severe addictions. The Conservatives have also promised to ban tent cities and shift the focus of supervised consumption sites to intake facilities for treatment.
Eby, while acknowledging the challenges in the NDP’s current approach, has defended the need for policy adjustments and continued safe supply measures. The BC Green Party, on the other hand, has advocated for an expansion of supervised consumption services and the establishment of an Independent Office of the Mental Health Advocate to address the crisis.
Political analysts suggest that the emergence of independent candidates could play a pivotal role in key ridings like Surrey, Richmond, and Parksville-Qualicum. Former BC United MLAs running as independents, including Mike Bernier and Karin Kirkpatrick, are hoping to capture votes from those dissatisfied with both the NDP and the Conservatives. If no party achieves a majority, these independents could hold the balance of power in the legislature.
Election Day Challenges and Outlook
The 2024 election will be closely watched across key battlegrounds in Metro Vancouver, Vancouver Island, and the interior, where weather conditions could significantly influence voter turnout. Elections BC has expressed confidence in its contingency plans, which include backup procedures for counting ballots manually in the event of electronic tabulator failures.
With both the BC NDP and Conservatives polling close, and independent candidates potentially splitting the conservative vote in close races, the outcome remains highly unpredictable.
As British Columbians prepare to head to the polls on Saturday, the stakes are high, and the province could be in for a historic political shift. Polls close at 8pm PST, with initial results expected to be reported within half an hour due to new vote-counting technology.
