The BC Election is Over—so What’s Next?
Image courtesy CBC
British Columbia’s 2024 election has drawn to a close with the BC NDP securing a narrow majority, marking a significant yet tenuous victory for Premier David Eby. The finalized seat count places the NDP at the 47-seat threshold needed for a majority, followed closely by the Conservative Party of BC with 44 seats, and the BC Greens holding two seats. However, with mandatory judicial recounts slated in key ridings, the province’s political landscape remains slightly uncertain.
Final Tally and Judicial Recounts
Following a tight election outcome, judicial recounts are scheduled for November 7-8 in two critical ridings: Surrey-Guildford, where NDP incumbent Garry Begg leads Conservative candidate Honveer Singh Randhawa by a slim 27 votes, and Kelowna Centre, where the Conservative candidate holds a narrow 38-vote advantage over the NDP. Both ridings fall within the recount threshold of less than 1/500th of total ballots cast, requiring a judicial review overseen by a BC Supreme Court judge.
Should the Conservatives overturn the NDP’s lead in Surrey-Guildford, the NDP’s majority could be lost, potentially plunging the party into minority governance. Eby has stated that he is at the mercy of Elections BC in determining when the cabinet can be sworn in, pending the outcomes of these recounts. Political analysts note the gravity of the situation, highlighting that even a single seat shift could alter legislative dynamics and heighten the province’s chances of an early election.
NDP’s Challenges and Immediate Priorities
With a reduced caucus, Eby and his team are tasked with navigating a legislative session with limited room for error. The loss of incumbents and cabinet ministers shows voter dissatisfaction on several fronts. Affordability, public safety, and healthcare dominated election discourse and likely influenced the NDP’s narrow win.
Addressing these concerns, Eby has pledged a renewed focus on pressing issues, including strengthening public safety measures and making life more affordable for British Columbians. Speaking this week, he acknowledged the clear message voters had sent, admitting that the party would need to demonstrate responsiveness and unity to retain public trust. The party’s slim majority, however, places added pressure on the NDP to maintain cohesion within its ranks, with MLAs emphasizing a commitment to “bridge-building” across party lines.
Eby has indicated plans to form a cabinet before the year’s end and is considering potential allies in the legislature, including the two Green MLAs. Speculation remains around the appointment of a Speaker. Traditionally, the Speaker comes from the governing party, yet some reports have noted that the NDP may seek an opposition MLA to assume the position to avoid narrowing its already tight majority further.
Conservative Party’s Strategy and Response
For BC Conservative leader John Rustad, the 2024 election marks an unprecedented ascent, taking the party from near political obscurity to within striking distance of government control. Rustad’s campaign tapped into voter frustration over affordability, crime, and healthcare concerns, enabling the Conservatives to secure a staggering 44 seats. Despite conceding the majority to the NDP, Rustad has committed to challenging Eby’s government at the first opportunity.
Reflecting on the campaign, Rustad pointed to timing limitations that may have cost the Conservatives key ridings.
Moving forward, the Conservatives have signaled a commitment to holding the NDP accountable for economic policies perceived as unsustainable. However, Rustad’s willingness to collaborate with the NDP on certain issues remains conditional, contingent upon policy alignment and an aversion to what he deems the “destructive policies” of previous NDP administrations.
Green Party’s Limited but Crucial Role
The BC Greens, though holding only two seats, occupy a unique position in the legislature as potential swing votes in a closely divided house. Green Party Leader Sonia Furstenau, however, no longer holds a seat herself, having lost in her riding of Victoria-Beacon Hill. Despite her electoral defeat, Furstenau remains active in shaping her party’s direction and has continued to emphasize the Greens’ priorities of environmental stewardship and social policy reform.
Furstenau’s absence from the legislature introduces a new dynamic, as leadership now pivots to the two Green MLAs, Jeremy Valeriote and Rob Botterell. Valeriote’s victory in the riding of West Vancouver–Sea to Sky has been noted as a significant breakthrough for the Greens, while Botterell’s election in Saanich North and the Islands ensures a continued Green presence on Vancouver Island.
While the Greens have indicated openness to working with other parties on shared priorities, they are positioning themselves as selective partners rather than automatic allies. This approach could see them support NDP initiatives on an issue-by-issue basis, providing conditional stability without a formal coalition.
Immediate Legislative and Procedural Steps
With the election outcome largely decided but judicial recounts pending, the focus shifts to procedural steps necessary for government formation. The appointment of a Speaker is a priority, as no legislative business, including a confidence vote, can proceed without one. If the NDP’s majority holds after recounts, Eby’s government will likely convene in a special session to solidify legislative operations and proceed with policy agendas.
A confidence vote will formally test the government’s support among MLAs. And with such a thin majority, every vote will matter. Eby’s administration will also face logistical challenges, as highlighted by political scientist Hamish Telford.
“There is no margin for error—so people can’t miss a ferry, you can’t have a cabinet minister at a meeting in Ottawa, and then life happens, people get sick, people go on maternity leave or parental leave, and you can’t control for that,” Telford told Global News.
“If they lose a person for these reasons they are down to a minority situation, and the conservatives… seem very eager to trigger another election.”
The recount results will dictate the immediate political climate. Should the Conservatives gain an additional seat through judicial review, Rustad has expressed intent to oppose NDP policies vigorously.
Looking Ahead
With a narrow majority, Eby’s government faces an uphill battle to implement its agenda. Meanwhile, the Conservatives have demonstrated newfound political clout, positioning themselves as a formidable opposition prepared to challenge the status quo—or at least presenting the image of being ready to do so.
The Greens, though small in numbers, remain crucial in determining the stability of BC’s government.
Whether British Columbians see lasting policy change or renewed political uncertainty will largely depend on how these parties navigate the coming months and their ability to collaborate—or confront—in a closely divided house.
