In BC's Tight Election, Independents May Hold the Balance of Power
Image courtesy CBC/Ben Nelms
The 2024 British Columbia provincial election is shaping up to be a close and unpredictable race, with recent polls showing a near tie between the BC NDP and the BC Conservatives. According to the latest data from ResearchCo, 45 percent of decided voters support the NDP, while 44 percent back the Conservatives. Premier David Eby leads the NDP in urban areas like Metro Vancouver and Vancouver Island, while John Rustad's Conservatives hold the advantage in rural parts of the province.
A major factor in this election is the record number of independent candidates—40 in total—largely a result of the collapse of BC United. Former BC United MLAs like Karin Kirkpatrick, Mike Bernier, Dan Davies, and Adam Walker are running as independents after rejecting calls to support the BC Conservatives. These independents could play a major role if neither the NDP nor Conservatives win a majority, potentially holding the balance of power in the legislature.
With 323 total candidates—269 from seven political parties and 40 running as independents—this election will be closely watched across key battlegrounds such as Surrey, Richmond, the Tri-Cities, Langley, and Chilliwack. On Vancouver Island, crucial ridings include Ladysmith-Oceanside and Parksville-Qualicum.
The election is largely focused on issues like housing, homelessness, and poverty, which top the list of concerns for 40 percent of voters. Healthcare, the economy, crime, and public safety also remain important topics.
Eby unveiled his party’s $2.9 billion election platform Thursday, promising to tackle these “tough challenges,” however, it comes at a high cost. According to the party’s projections, the platform would add nearly $3 billion to BC’s already record-high $8.9 billion deficit for 2025-26, pushing total debt beyond $129 billion. The annual interest payments alone have ballooned to $3.5 billion, or $9.6 million per day.
READ MORE: BC NDP Unveils $2.9B Platform Amid Massive Deficit and Fiscal Concerns
Political analysts say that the rise of independents, especially in traditionally right-leaning areas, could split the vote and hurt the Conservatives, possibly giving the NDP an advantage in close races. Meanwhile, the BC Green Party is aiming to regain influence in the legislature.
BC Green Party Leader Sonia Furstenau made a surprising move ahead of the election by leaving her secure seat in Cowichan Valley to challenge the NDP in Victoria-Beacon Hill, a riding held by the NDP since 1991, except for a brief Liberal win in 2001.
As British Columbians head to the polls, the election’s outcome could hinge on the independent candidates, whose influence may determine the balance of power in the legislature.